David’s Hot Take - which Movies will be Licensing Hits in 2026?

Every year, studios release dozens of blockbuster films — but only a handful actually become licensing powerhouses.

In this episode of Born to License, David Born shares his hot take on the 2026 theatrical slate and answers the question every licensee, licensor, and retailer should be asking right now: which movies will really drive consumer products sales?

Drawing on real industry experience, David rates the licensing potential of major 2026 releases and explains why some box office hits fail at retail — while others dominate shelves worldwide.

In this episode, you’ll hear:

• The biggest licensing lesson from 2025’s surprise hit K-Pop Demon Hunters
• Why licensing success requires betting on properties before audiences do
• David’s licensing score (out of 10) for 2026’s biggest films, including:
  • Toy Story 5
  • Spider-Man: Brand New Day
  • Avengers: Doomsday
  • The Mandalorian & Grogu
  • Minions 3
  • Super Mario Galaxy
  • Moana (Live Action)
  • Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow
• Which studio David believes will win the licensing battle in 2026
• Why evergreen IP often outperforms tentpole-driven franchises

If you work in licensing, retail, brand strategy, or entertainment, this episode will change how you look at theatrical releases — and what actually matters when it comes to consumer products.

🎧 Next episode: Why you need to start preparing now for Licensing Expo — and the biggest mistakes brands make every year.

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Transcript

Welcome back to Born to License. I'm David Born. Today, we're answering the question every licensee, licensor and retailer should be asking right now. Which theatrical releases are actually going to drive consumer products in 2026? 2025 taught some critical lessons. For example, we learned what happens when you're caught unprepared for a breakout hit. So today I'm going chronologically through 2026's major releases. I'm going to rate each one's licensing potential out of 10. And at the end, I'll tell you which studio I think actually wins the licensing battle. So let's dive in. Now, before we look ahead, let's talk about the biggest lesson from 2025. I'm talking about K Pop Demon Hunters. Yes, it was a phenomenon. Netflix released this animated film in June 2025, and nobody, not Netflix, not retailers, not licensees, saw it coming. 

 The film became Netflix's most watched title in history, surpassing 500 million views. The song golden hit number one on the Billboard Hot 100. It was a cultural juggernaut. But here's the problem. There were almost no toys in the market. Parents were literally asking, where are the toys? Bloomberg, the Hollywood Reporter, Reuters, they all wrote about it. It was reported by the Hollywood Reporter that Netflix had approached toy companies 12 to 18 months before release, and the response was lukewarm. Knowing how long it takes to develop a licensed toys program, I would say conversations probably would have started even earlier. By the time everybody realized how much of a massive success it was going to be, it was too late for the 2025 holiday season. Netflix has now corrected it in a big way. 

 In October, they announced an unprecedented deal making both Mattel and Hasbro co master toy licensees. Now, giving two major toy companies co master toy licensee responsibility is a rarity. But I think it demonstrates that people really think K Pop Demon Hunters has potential to be a very strong franchise in the future. Netflix has said that Hasbro and Mattel toys will be available at retail from the beginning of US Spring 2026 through to holiday season and beyond. Now, that's only a few months away. I expect that Mattel and Hasbro have both made it a priority and their foots are on the gas to get product out. The lesson here, while streaming hits similar to theatrical releases, they need at least a couple of years of lead time for consumer products. You can't manufacture demand overnight. So the lesson from 2025 is clear. 

 Consumer products can't be reactive. By the time you know something's a hit, it's too late. Success in licensing requires betting on properties before the audience does. Of course, there is a risk in doing that. All right, so let's get on to 2026. I'm going chronologically and I'm rating each film's licensing potential out of 10. Let's start with hoppers from Pixar, launching March 6th. Look, Pixar's last original film, Elio, was a bit of a flop and that's created some real hesitation. I feel like licensees, retailers, even licensors, they're all cautious about building consumer products programs around untested properties right now. Now it is Pixar, so it will be built on quality. And I expect we'll have some good promotional partnerships too. Disney does an incredible job with those. But consumer products going all in, I don't see it. 

 A 19 year old putting her consciousness into a robotic beaver. That's a tough sell even in the best circumstances. And after Elio, I, I think everyone's playing it safe on this one. I'm going to give it a 3 out of 10. Moving on to April 3rd, the Super Mario Galaxy movie from Universal and Illumination. Now this is the sequel to the Super Mario Brothers movie which was absolutely massive. We've got Mario, we've got a space theme, Illuminations track record, which is incredible. This should be a licensing slam dunk. But here's the thing. We know Nintendo are more selective than most licensors when it comes to lending out their ip. It's not going to be everywhere it could be, but it's not going to be. Expect them to heavily lean on their top tier partnerships like Lego. 

 There'll be toys, games, apparel, but Nintendo controls this IP tightly. They're not going to flood the market. With that said, this will still be one of the year's biggest films. 2023. The film generated 1.36 billion at the box office. I expect this will come close to matching that if not doing more. I'm giving this one a seven out of ten. Come May the Devil Wears Prada two. One that I'm really looking forward to from Disney and 20th Century. Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Emily Blunt, they're all back. It will do pretty well at the box office with that millennial nostalgic crowd. But in licensing, I think quite minimal. There might be some fashion collaborations, some lifestyle products. I think the property lends itself to those kind of partnerships, but I don't see this driving volume. I'm going to give it a two out of ten. 

 Also in May is Mortal Kombat 2. That's May 16th. Now here's the reality. Mortal Kombat is quite violent, R rated and appeals primarily to adult males. Consumer products have never really matched the video game success. We can expect. Collectibles, high end figures, apparel. But I don't see mass market toy retail. I'm giving this a 3 out of 10 in later May. May 22nd, we have a big one. The Mandalorian and Grogu. This is coming from Lucasfilm and Disney. This is the first Star wars theatrical release since 2019. And Grogu, who's better known as Baby Yoda, is one of the most merchandised characters of the past decade. Disney's major partners like Hasbro, Lego, Funko, they've been ready for this moment for years. Here's the thing, even if this underperforms at box office, it'll crush it in consumer products. 

 Star wars merchandise sells consistently all year round without a theatrical release. So the added theatrical hype will only amplify that Disney does need a win after recent Star wars fatigue. And in licensing, Grogu is as close to a sure thing as you can get. I'm giving this an eight out of ten. Next is Masters of the Universe. June 5th. This is Mattel's big bet for 2026. It's the follow up to Barbie's billion dollar success. But can it reach the same heights? Certainly. Big shoes to fill. The pressure is on. Masters of the Universe has nostalgic appeal. The toy line launched in 1982, but it's competing in a crowded superhero action space. It's a very busy period from a licensing point of view with Star wars installment still being in the market by the time this releases. 

 And there's hype building on what will be another massive film dropping two weeks after the property has been challenging in modern licensing. It's male, skewed, less universally recognizable than Marvel or dc. And not a huge amount of recent success to build from. I know that the Mattel team are feeling really confident about this. Let's see. I'm giving it a six out of ten on June 12th. We've got two films. Scary Movie 6 from Paramount. This is an adult comedy. It's a great franchise. I'm sure there'll be some apparel, but there's going to not be much happening from a consumer products program. I think I'm giving it a one out of ten. Also on June 12th. Disclosure Day from Universal. This is Steven Spielberg's big UFO film. 

 It will be a Prestige release, potentially huge critically and at the box office, but it's adult oriented sci fi. Maybe some collectibles, but it won't be huge. I'm also going to give this a one out of ten. Now. June 19th is a big one. Toy Story 5 coming from Pixar and Disney, this is toys versus technology. Woody and Buzz face their biggest threat yet. A tablet voiced by Greta Lee. The Toy Story franchise has always been licensing gold. Yes, this is the fifth film, so we could see a little bit of franchise fatigue, but honestly, I think Toy Story will be unavoidable at retail, which was the case in 2019 with Toy Story 4. I'm giving this one a. Wait for it, a 10 out of 10. This will be absolutely huge. 

 Staying in June 26th we are Supergirl Woman of Tomorrow from DC Studios and Warner Brothers. This is James Gunn's daughter. DC Universe continuing to roll out after Superman in 2025. Supergirls got built in recognition and Millie Alcock from House of Dragon is the lead. Here's what makes this interesting from a licensing perspective. It was reported that the s shield generated $634 million in global merchandise sales in 2018. That was without a major theatrical release. The Superman brand sells all year round. It's one of the most recognizable logos in the world, spanning everything from apparel to collectibles to home goods. Now, being ex Warner Brothers myself, I know how important the D.C. portfolio is to their licensing business. So I expect they're putting everything they can behind this. The extra hype around the film, especially following the Superman reboot last year, will only amplify that. 

 Even if Supergirl doesn't match Superman's box office, the S Shield will be everywhere at retail. I'm giving this an 8 out of 10. Moving on to July. July 1st, we have minions 3 from Universal and Illumination. Now Minions print money. Let me give you some context on why Minions are a licensing juggernaut. The franchise has crossed $5 billion at the global box office. The the first animated franchise ever to do that. The franchise has proven evergreen appeal across multiple demographics. And Universal has perfected the licensing playbook for these characters. Toys, apparel, food, partnerships. This will be everywhere. I'm giving it an 8 out of 10. Shortly after July 10th, we have Moana. This is the live action version from Disney. Dwayne Johnson will return as Maui. The original was a massive hit and the sequel crossed $1 billion. 

 Live action remakes have been a hit or miss in consumer products, but Moana has strong cultural resonance. And the Disney Princess line behind it. This will probably do well, especially internationally. My only hesitation is how the live action assets will be applied to consumer products as there is usually less appeal than animated characters. I I'm giving this one a 7 out of 10. July 17th the Odyssey from Universal Christopher Nolan's Epic with Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Zendaya. It'll be a huge theatrical event. In fact, they started selling tickets in July last year and sold out quickly. Can you believe it? But it's a prestige period piece. Some collectibles for film buffs, sure, but I don't see this making a splash from a broader consumer products perspective. 

 Even though I think this movie will be epic, I'm giving it a 1 out of 10 from a licensing point of view. July 31st Spider Man Brand new Day from Marvel and Sony. Spider man is the single most licensed character in entertainment. It constantly appears as one of the most popular characters across children, appealing to both boys and girls. But teens and adults love Spider man as well. Tom Holland is returning Zendaya back. Marvel Studios is co producing with Sony. Hasbro's got the master toy license. This will be one of the year's top licensing properties, if not the top. I can speak from experience. One of our clients has a broad range of licenses and Spider man consistently is their number one seller. And there isn't even a movie going on at the moment. Wait till the movie launches. This will be massive. 

 I'm telling you. I am giving it, you guessed it, a 10 out of 10. September rolls around. September 26th we have Clayface from DC Studios and Warner Brothers. This is a body horror take on a shape shifting Batman villain. This is more niche, darker DC property, some collectibles but limited mass appeal compared to Batman or Superman. I'm giving this a 2 out of 10. November 6th we have the Cat in the Hat. Bill Hader voices the cat with the film moved from February to November to capture the holiday corridor. Dr. Seuss Properties have proven to be licensing gold. The Grinch consistently drives holiday merchandise, but the Cat in the Hat isn't as strong. If they deliver a quality animated film, this could become an evergreen holiday property. 

 But I don't see it coming even close to a strong of a licensing program as we've seen with the Grinch in recent years. I'm giving this one a six out of ten in later November. November 26th we have Narnia. It's Greta Gerwig's Narnia. This is Netflix's big bet on what they hope will become their next big franchise it will release in IMAX in late November before it hits streaming on Netflix in Christmas Day. CS Lewis's IP has built in recognition it if Gerwig delivers this could be significant. I expect Netflix to go all in on this, using the lesson from K Pop Demon Hunters to encourage licensees and retailers to get on board now to ensure they aren't left behind when it proves to be a smash hit. I'm giving this one 7 out of 10 getting towards the end of the year. 

 Now December 11th we have Jumanji 3. Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart return for what we expect to be the final installment in the franchise. The previous two films earned $963 million and $802 million globally. Expect some big promotional partnerships and toy activity, but I don't see this being a big licensing program. One reason for that is because of what's coming next, which I think will be much more on retailer and licensee mines in December this year. I'm giving Jumanji three a six out of ten. Now December 18th is going to be a big one. Avengers Doomsday from Marvel Studios the Russo brothers are returning to direct the next Avengers installment. Robert Downey Jr. Is back, but he's playing Doctor Doom, not Iron Man. Disney and Marvel are hoping that this will be the biggest theatrical event of 2026. Hasbro's got the master toy license. 

 Every major retailer will have dedicated space for this. This is going to be a big program, but is there a little bit of superhero fatigue? That's the only reason why I'm not giving this 10 out of 10. I feel that there is a small chance that Avengers can't pull in what they used to at the box office and from a consumer products point of view. So I'm giving it a nine out of 10. And last, we have December 25th, Dune Messiah from Warner Brothers and legendary Timothy Chamolay's Zendaya back with another Dune film. Dune has been tricky in consumer products. It's visually stunning and very popular, but it's not character driven in the way that sells toys as much. So expect collectibles, high end figures, but limited mass market penetration. I'm giving this a 4 out of 10 also. 

 One thing I wanted to know is the dates that I've mentioned. Here is where they're currently slated right now, but they are subject to change. So who wins the licensing battle in 2026 from a theatrical release perspective? If you were taking notes then you would have seen that I'm predicting that Disney will have an incredible year with Toy Story 5 and Spider Man. Brand New Day getting a 10 out of 10 and Avengers Doomsday out of a 9 out of 10 and the Mandalorian and Grogu 8 out of 10. I'm predicting success from Supergirl and Minions 3, the Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Moana and Narnia. From box office point of view, I think it will be a tight race between Disney and Universal with Disney ultimately coming out on top once again. 2026 will be a massive year at the box office. 

 A lot of amazing films, but 2027 is stacked as well. I'll be sure to do another episode closer to the time, but we're Talking about Shrek 5, the Legend of Zelda, the Batman Part 2, Frozen 3, another Spider man film, another Avengers film, another Simpsons movie, and of course, maybe saving the Best to Last Bluey the Movie. That will be huge. Huge. From a licensing perspective, it's already massive. Who knows what Bluey can do with a tent pole like a film? Now here's something we can't forget. Theatrical releases are just a small piece of the licensing puzzle. Evergreen Brands hello Kitty, Harry Potter Peanuts Classic Disney Princess Marvel beyond the films, these drive all year round sales, they're not dependent on a single theatrical release. Retailers love them because they're predictable. They're reliable revenue. Peanuts just got acquired by Sony for $1.1 billion. 

 That valuation wasn't based on a theatrical slate. It was based partly on Evergreen Consumer Products. Performance all year round success. Very predictable, very consistent. Now, if you missed last week's episode of the podcast I covered why a brand like Peanuts is valued at $1.1 billion. So go and take a look at that. Have a listen if you haven't already. So. So yes, 2026's theatrical slate matters. But the real winners in licensing, from my point of view, they're the brands that show up 365 days a year regardless of what's in theaters. And that's the name of the game. So that's it for today's episode. If you found this useful, share it with someone in the licensing world who'd appreciate it. And if you've got thoughts on 2026, what I got right, maybe what I got wrong, please let me know. Hit me up on LinkedIn. 

 I'm also on Instagram. Next week we're talking All Things Licensing Expo happening in May. Why you need to Start preparing now. Don't wait until a month before Start preparing now. I'll share some tips from my learnings over the years until then. I'm David Born, and this has been Born to License.